Rationally Bayesian Doesn’t Help You See The Elephant!
The example used for ‘conspiracy thinking’ was the ignorance of an elected official during WW2, California Governor Earl Warren https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Earl_Warren
Who interestingly enough, got placed on the Supreme Court by the parasitic class later in his career!
We literally swim in a world of conspiracies (look up LIBOR scandal, for just one example: http://www.liborscandal.org/index.html), yet we are supposed to marginalize each other with ridicule like ‘nut job’ and ‘conspiracy theorist’ to keep us in the ‘safe’ and ‘permissible’ trendy mainstream dominant social memes.
The criminal banksters and their corporations get to hide in plain sight and we police each other for crossing boundaries they have set for us! They can wreak havoc on our planet and blame humanity for their deeds. Note however, that Bayesian Logic can’t even grasp this structure and dynamics.
This shows how a statistical and frequency-oriented approach to looking at our world is no guarantee of even seeing the proverbial ‘elephant in the room’!